WTO: false dawn?

After seven years of mistrust and missed deadlines, another big push to reach agreement in the Doha Round appears to be underway.

This week, a delegation of lobbyists representing some of the largest US corporations will travel to Geneva to press WTO officials on the issue of service sector liberalisation -- fuelling hopes that negotiators may be nearing an agreement.  

Agricultural and industrial liberalisation have always formed the core elements of the Doha Round negotiations.   However, while trade in services has so far taken a secondary role, this week's delegation is evidence that the sector will form an essential part of any final deal.   The task facing negotiators in Geneva is to combine these different elements into a package sufficiently attractive to all participating members.

Prevailing political and economic conditions will make it increasingly difficult to strike a deal.  As global growth slows, protectionist tendencies increase.  Politically influential farmers in the United States, Europe and Japan will resist any meaningful compromise on agriculture while developing countries will look to cede less in terms of market access for industrial goods.

The greatest obstacle, however, is the US Congress. Last June, the Bush Administration's Trade Promotion Authority expired. That means that any Doha package will need cross-party support in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. With the Democrats controlling both houses -- and the US economy facing the prospect of recession -- the chances of any Doha package making it through Congress unscathed are minimal.