Boomerang Berlusconi

Silvio Berlusconi, two-time prime minister of Italy, will almost certainly win a third term in Sunday and Monday's parliamentary elections. Yet in terms of solving the country's political and economic crisis, it will not be third time lucky.

The last official opinion polls give Berlusconi's centre-right Party of Freedom (PdL) a comfortable 5% lead over its main rival, the centre-left Democratic Party led by former Rome mayor and relative newcomer -- by Italian standards -- Walter Veltroni. 

Power sharing

While this translates into a large majority in the lower house, it might not be enough to secure a stable majority in the equally powerful upper house. He may need to enter alliances with unreliable coalition partners.  Berlusconi would then find himself in the same precarious position that proved fatal to now outgoing Prime Minister Romano Prodi, who yielded power after only two years.

However, despite the increasing polemic days before the election, Berlusconi and Veltroni might be prepared to enter a power-sharing grand coalition.  In fact, the first phase of the election campaign, both men demonstrated unusual bipartisanship.

Such a deal would be in both leaders' interest, giving them a large enough majority to push through urgently needed constitutional reform.  Changing the electoral law and strengthening weak institutions, especially that of government, would not only bring some political stability to the country, but also give more powers to the prime minister. 

Achieving stability

If at all possible, Berlusconi would prefer to keep the coalition on the centre-right with support from the notoriously unreliable Northern League.  In that case, stability will be more difficult to achieve and the country might find itself in exactly the same position two or three years from now. 

However, by then, the 2013 presidential elections will be much closer and the septuagenarian -- albeit still lustrous -- Berlusconi might prefer that largely ceremonial post for his retirement rather than fighting for a fourth term.  Berlusconi may be here to stay in Italian politics -- but so too is instability.