Weapons of mass reduction

The dynamics of the 'peace index' are changing.

The world is still awash in weapons, yet fewer changed hands last year. The Russia-China love-in is over. And a classic arms race is heating up in Latin America.

After six consecutive years of increases, there has been an 8% drop in international transfers of major conventional weapons -- battle tanks, armoured combat vehicles, large-calibre artillery systems, combat aircraft, attack helicopters, warships and missiles -- between 2006 and 2007, according to new data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

With significant new orders for weapon systems inked in the Middle East, South Asia and South East Asia during 2007, it is too early to say the data suggest a new declining trend in arms transfers or just a blip.

Russia and China

A 62% fall in arms imports by China clobbered Russia.  After orders peaked at more than $2 billion a year early in this decade, China's arms deals with Russia shrank to almost nothing in 2006, and no major new contracts are in the pipeline. The table shows that Moscow's arms exports shrank almost the same amount as Beijing's imports.

There are political and technological reasons for the discontinuance of the relationship. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, both countries desperately needed one another. Denied weapons from the West, China became almost totally reliant on Russia to swell its arsenal and was Moscow's main client. Yet Russia's fear of a large neighbour armed to the teeth and China's desire to become more self-reliant, led both sides to re-evaluate this trade. There was also a surge of purchases at the turn of the century, meaning Beijing has less need for replacement weapons now.

Despite the winding down of business with China, Russia retains its position as the world's second-largest arms supplier, behind the United States. The top five suppliers -- the United States, Russia, Germany, France and the UK -- together account for 80% of international arms exports.

Latin America: ravenous?

The importers table shows two Latin American countries that have become ravenous for arms. The argument is usually made that these countries are simply replacing aging materiel, yet Chile and Venezuela's purchases could reflect growing rivalries with neighbours. Chile has a long-standing dispute over Bolivia's access to the Pacific and has clashed with Peru over maritime sovereignty. Venezuela has clashed with Colombia over Caracas's relations with the FARC and is becoming increasingly confrontational over the US role in the region.

The sudden increase in the firepower of these two countries is far beyond that of its neighbours. Venezuela has gone from the 56th biggest importer in the world in 1998-2002 to the 24th. This triggers neighbours' concerns and a classic arms race is heating up.