Global Risks

Major changes since March 27, 2008.

Headline risk

The risk has risen of military conflict in North Korea, as Pyongyang risks misjudging how much others will tolerate its attempts to force concessions by turning confrontational:

• The military test-fired short-range missiles into the sea, in an apparent attempt by Pyongyang to up the ante to break the stalemate over the six-party talks agreement in its favour.
• Pyongyang upped its rhetoric to threaten South Korea, highlighting the possibility that its military could launch a pre-emptive strike on its neighbour.

Moreover, food rations are being suspended for six months in Pyongyang, according to South Korea-based relief group, Good Friends. Food shortages seem likely to worsen, and could prove highly destabilising as they hit the urban population.

 

Other rising risks

• Argentine sovereign default
• Return to protectionism
• Deep recession in the United States

 

Other declining risks

• Return to serious disruption in the Balkans

You can see a complete list of Global Stress Points we are monitoring on the guest page of the live service.

You can learn more about the Global Stress Points Matrix™, or request a trial through the service information page.