Weekend retreat?

Will George Bush and Vladimir Putin rekindle the warm, fuzzy feeling of their first meeting this Sunday?

The US and Russian presidents hit it off immediately back in 2001. After meeting Putin, Bush came over all clairvoyant, saying he had seen into the steely Russian leader's soul. Putin reciprocated by allowing the US military build bases in Central Asia following the September 11 attacks.

Yet mutual bad feeling crept back into the US-Russian relationship. Last year, Putin used a conference in Munich to unleash a broadside on the United States' cavalier attitude to global rules. US Vice President Dick Cheney took potshots at the Kremlin for using oil as a geopolitical weapon. Bush and Putin will this weekend seek to exorcise that ill-feeling by signing a joint, strategic framework document.

Military encirclement?

Top of the agenda is the question of Missile Defense. The United States plans to create a third Missile Defense installation to add to existing bases in California and Alaska, installing missile silos in Poland and a radar system in the Czech Republic.

Washington claims the system is an indispensable precaution against a realistic threat: the possibility of Iran or another rogue state developing missiles that can strike the US homeland. And why should Moscow be nervous of a ten-missile system with its own stockpile of over 3,000 warheads mounted on submarines, ground-based systems and planes?

Russia argues that the missiles on its doorstep are the first palisades in an unwanted picket fence that could be expanded, boxing in the country. Hardliners in the Russian military establishment also oppose compromise.

Yet a visit to Moscow by Condoleezza Rice and Defense Secretary Robert Gates last month -- followed by a three-day return trip -- hinted at an amicable solution. The 'spirit of 2001' could be invoked again this weekend.

Bush's legacy

Bush may have concluded that doing business with Putin is his best shot at a foreign policy legacy, given his calamitous record in the Middle East. His interests include:

raising Russia's oil and gas output, which threatens to dwindle for lack of investment;
working together to restrain troublesome countries like Iran and North Korea; and
tracking down errant nuclear material in ex-Soviet states.

For Putin, talks with Bush are an opportunity to advance his major goal: the continuing rise in living standards in Russia. This objective necessitates good relations with the US and international institutions it dominates.

Time is running out

Yet time is running out for both men. This time next year, the United States will have a new president, and the newcomer –- be he Republican or Democrat -- will less comfortable a negotiating partner for Russia than a legacy-hungry Bush. John McCain has called for Russia's ejection from the G8, while Hillary Clinton recently failed to pronounce the Russian president-elect's name, settling for "Med-whatever".

Luckily for Bush and Putin, the dappled sunshine and soft breezes of Russia's Black Sea coast -- site of many a Chekhovian romance -- is the perfect place to rekindle old affections.