Iraq: violence plateau

Wednesday, April 9

Though reported violent incidents in Iraq are only a representative sample, they are nonetheless a useful pointer to the country's stability. According to Iraqi government incident databases, the country experienced a substantial rise in violent incidents in March:

• Reported incidents increased from 2,082 in February to 3,048.
• Much of the rise was caused by sudden spikes resulting from the government's security operations in Basra (117 reported incidents, 49% up on February) and Baghdad (1,010 incidents, 57% higher than February).
• Slowly rising levels of violence in Mosul (747 reported incidents, a rise of 38%) and Salahuddin (377 incidents) are also significant.

The levelling off of violent incidents Iraq shows that the 'quick wins' (militants easily detached from the insurgency) may be over and that slower workmanlike counter-terrorism will now be needed to chip away at the remaining elements. In contrast, the spike in incidents in late March is not necessarily a negative pointer. Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is currently gambling that he can pull off simultaneous security operations in Basra, Baghdad and Mosul.

The Mahdi Army and other outlaw movements were roughly handled by the Iraqi security forces and have also emerged more politically isolated; Sunni fighters in the north are slowly being strangled by the ever-growing numbers of security forces. Though future months will likely see further high levels of violence in Mosul and multi-day factional clashes across the centre and south of Iraq, the initiative has not passed back to the insurgency.