Egypt: rough and smooth

Egyptian democracy is an iron fist in a velvet glove.

Plainclothes state security forces have been roughing up hundreds of opposition Islamists in recent weeks, ostensibly an attempt to smooth the ruling National Democratic Party's path to future presidential elections.  Local council elections take place on Tuesday and Egypt's authoritarian government has already detained more than 800 members of the Muslim Brotherhood -- the country's largest, oldest and best organised opposition group -- including at least 148 would-be candidates in the council vote. The Brotherhood's case is becoming a cause celebre in Egypt, where President Hosni Mubarak is facing growing domestic and international pressure to democratise.

Underpinning the heavy-handedness is some sound Egyptian political calculus. Seats on local councils are important if political groups want to line up an independent candidate for a presidential run in the future. Independent candidates for the presidency need endorsements from 140 members of local councils, as well as support from members of both houses of parliament.  The strong showing of the Brotherhood in parliamentary elections in late 2005 will have made the Mubarak regime nervous it could achieve this figure. The Brotherhood, whose version of democracy has distinctly divine overtones, currently holds a fifth of the seats in the lower house of parliament through members elected as independents.