Armenia: balancing act

This week, Armenian President-elect Serge Sarkisian takes office in a hornet's nest.

Sarkisian's election on February 19 sparked eleven days of non-stop violent protests by opposition groups united around former President Levon Ter-Petrosian, who said the vote was rigged. Emergency rule was imposed, rallies banned and media freedoms severely curtailed. Yet the opposition has vowed to keep up protests, and society is severely polarised.

The authorities are attempting to stabilise the situation by co-opting as many political forces as possible. A new government will be formed after Sarkisian's inauguration on Wednesday, and is likely to be dramatically reshuffled, in order to reflect a four-party coalition agreement. An opposition figure may be offered a government post to demonstrate the new coalition's more liberal course and take the sting out of the opposition camp.

New Great Game pawn?

Sarkisian also has a delicate balancing act in continuing the policy of 'complementarity' between Russia and the West. Armenia is Moscow's staunchest ally in the South Caucasus, a region that is emerging as a playing board for the New Great Game in which Russia and the West compete for influence over exports of oil from the Caspian Sea.

• The warm ties between Armenia and Russia are unlikely to change under the new leaders because both men are close allies of the outgoing presidents.
• As for Washington, it has been critical of the recent violence, but is torn between its energy interests and the domestic Armenian lobby. President George Bush is yet to congratulate Sarkisian on his hotly disputed victory and State Department officials said they might suspend or even terminate the 237 million dollars in economic assistance promised to Armenia under the Millennium Challenge Account programme. Suspension would seriously hamper the government's prospects of improving welfare in the country.