Undermining Chavez

US President George Bush is in a race to ink a free trade agreement (FTA) with Colombia before he leaves office. Indeed, his administration may well present legislation to Congress immediately after the Easter recess. The House of Representatives would then have 60 days to consider a bill, and the Senate a further 30 days.

Revived agreement

Until earlier this month, the FTA was believed to be dead in the water.  The agreement faced opposition from many Democrats in both houses of Congress, primarily because of human rights concerns, particularly related to the killing and harassment of trade union leaders. Allegations of links between senior figures close to Colombian President Alvaro Uribe and right-wing paramilitaries also fuelled opposition. 

However, the FTA was given a new lease of life following a recent Colombian military incursion into neighbouring Ecuador, in which 17 FARC guerrillas were killed, including the group's spokesman and second-in-command Raul Reyes. The incident sparked a diplomatic row between Colombia, Ecuador and Venezuela, whose president, Hugo Chavez, had been seeking to broker an exchange of imprisoned FARC insurgents for high profile hostages.

Although diplomatic tension, particularly between Colombia and Venezuela, has dissipated, the Bush administration has sought to make the FTA into a national security issue, arguing that its ratification would help undermine Chavez's regional influence, while shoring up Washington's key regional ally.

Fat chance?

The chances of ratification remain remote. Democratic leaders in Congress have already voiced concerns about parliamentary protocol being breached in an attempt to fast track the FTA; if such moves are perceived to be continuing, it would be likely to harden Democratic opposition.

Concerns over human rights, labour relations and environmental protect persist. Neither the Bush administration nor the Colombian government are likely to be able to address them sufficiently; without progress on these issues, national security arguments are unlikely to win over sceptical Democrats.

Most importantly, Democratic presidential contenders have taken a relatively protectionist line on trade; many legislators from their party are unlikely to back an FTA that would appear to contradict this position in an election year.

Therefore, ratification is unlikely until after a new administration moves into the White House.  If Republican nominee John McCain were elected later this year, he would be likely to back an FTA with Colombia.  However, if either of the two Democratic candidates becomes the next president, prospects for an FTA would be even bleaker than they are now, given that Democrats are likely to increase their presence in Congress.

Trade as normal...

The short- to medium-term implications for trade are relatively minor, given that Andean trade preferences have been extended.  Indeed, for as long as there is no bilateral FTA between the United States and Colombia, further extensions of trade preferences are quite likely.  This would probably also benefit Ecuador and Bolivia -- a bilateral FTA with Peru was ratified last year -- which have governments that are far less sympathetic to Washington.