Zimbabwe: possible outcomes

Monday, March 31

In this uncertain context, the most likely outcomes for Zimbabwe's general election are wins for either President Robert Mugabe or Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader Morgan Tsvangirai, or a run-off between them involving negotiations for Finance Minister Simba Makoni's support: Makoni's share of the vote was unofficially estimated at 9% early on Monday. Although his share may improve as more rural constituencies report, his late entry to the contest and lack of a natural grass roots constituency are likely to limit him to this role:

• Outright Tsvangirai win. A Tsvangirai victory was widely discounted before the poll, on the grounds that Makoni would take votes from the MDC leader as well as Mugabe, and the combined effects of state patronage and electoral irregularities would guarantee Mugabe enough votes to secure a run-off if not outright victory.  
• Outright Mugabe win. The advantages of controlling the state apparatus, opposition divisions and the possibility of massive poll rigging made an outright Mugabe victory widely predicted before the election. However, the entry of Makoni to the contest has brought disunity in ZANU-PF to the surface. It may have made a vote against Mugabe -- whether for Makoni himself or even Tsvangirai -- more thinkable for rank and file ZANU-PF supporters who, unlike the elite, have not been shielded against Zimbabwe's economic collapse.
• Tsvangirai-Mugabe run-off. If no candidate achieves 51% of the vote, the top two will contest a run-off election within 21 days of the election.