Taiwan: race narrows

Taiwanese voters decide on Saturday who they want for president, the Kuomintang's (KMT) Ma Ying-jeou or the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) Frank Hsieh. Ma has the edge.

People are fed up after eight years of DPP rule under President Chen Shui-bian. They said as much at legislative polls in January, when the KMT trounced the DPP in a humiliating defeat.

Commitment to Taiwan

This weekend's election hinges on who is the most committed to Taiwan.  Here, Ma is on the defensive, and Hsieh has needled him by holding out that he has a US green card, implying a compromised loyalty to Taiwan. (Ma says it lost validity years ago.)

Looking at the party rather than the personal politics, the KMT has traditionally supported unification with China, though not on Chinese Communist Party terms. Under Lee Teng-hui the party drifted in the 1990s to a pro-Taiwan position, but it later let Lee go, and back-pedalled. Ma has to defend against the charge that the KMT might 'sell out' to the mainland. He has been able to exploit events in Tibet over the past week, condemning Beijing's crackdown there, as has Hsieh. He also lambasted Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's criticism of Taiwan's referendums on joining the United Nations, to take place alongside the presidential election.  

China engagement

Ma's anti-China rhetoric is tactical, and sits uncomfortably next to his espousal of improved relations with China, made harder now by the wedge he appears to be driving between himself and the Chinese leadership this week.

Hsieh also wants economic engagement, but DPP instincts are more tempered. He also has to keep harder line pro-Taiwan voters on board. Whereas for Ma, Tibet has been a useful shield against putative detractors, for Hsieh it is a stick with which to beat Beijing, thereby burnishing his credentials with the hard core of the DPP.

The election is not all about politics, and the economy has naturally come into play. Ma and Hsieh's ideas here converge, although Hsieh wants to cut taxes and Ma wants to spend to stimulate growth. Business will go with Ma. It depends increasingly on China, and Ma and the KMT might smooth the way there. Ma says he wants to negotiate a 'peace agreement' with China. And he has promoted a 'common market' with the mainland, although that would take time.

China has interests that go well beyond Saturday, and a Ma victory might not make life with Beijing much easier. What is more, Ma talks up a point here only to dash it elsewhere. He wants to talk peace with China, but not while it is pointing missiles at Taiwan. (That suggests no talks, as China is unlikely to comply.) Rapprochement with China on any front requires Beijing's cooperation, which may only come with conditions attached.

That said, if Ma can roll back the years to revive the old formula of one China, but allowing for different interpretations of what that means -- the '1992 consensus' China was so incensed to see Lee abandon -- then a door might open for engagement.

Gap in closing

Although Ma is frontrunner for the top job, the gap with Hsieh may have closed over the past week. As well as the fallout from Tibet, the DPP may have benefited from the curious incident of the 'raid' by KMT legislators on DPP campaign headquarters last week, which turned into an unseemly brawl. Ma apologised.

Hsieh is also relying on concern about the use the KMT would make of its power if it secured the presidency on top of the Legislative Yuan, with only a weak opposition to check it. However, this will not wash with those who have despaired at eight years of policy deadlock when parliament was in the opposition's hands and the presidency in Chen's.  Ma can be expected to win.