Zimbabwe: fist fight

As Zimbabweans prepare for general elections next Saturday, few except the most optimistic of Western commentators are predicting an upset.  

President Robert Mugabe does not do election defeats, and there are few signs that he has any intention of giving his people a free vote this time round.   However, all is not well for Mugabe, who is urging Zimbabweans to 'Vote For The Fist'.

ZANU-PF fracture

With the country gripped by hyperinflation, his ruling party, ZANU-PF, has begun to fracture.  Harare's political heavyweights know that the election will be crucial in determining which one of them will eventually succeed the ageing president. 

In his 28 years as Zimbabwe's head of state, Mugabe has used both repression and patronage to maintain his position.  In the past, support for ZANU-PF could bring you land, employment and food.  Now, his policies have brought economic disaster.

Mugabe is finding it difficult even to muster the resources necessary to buy the votes he needs.  Last week, he passed into law measures that require 51% of foreign-owned businesses to be held by 'indigenous' Zimbabweans.  The move seems like an attempt to replicate the electoral boost he gained after embarking on radical land reform in 2000.  

Yet it is doubtful what effect, if any, this measure will have in Mugabe's core rural constituencies, whose immediate concern is the country's food security crisis.

Makoni and Mujuru

Mugabe has been irritated by the campaign of his former finance minister: Simba Makoni.   Makoni, a party insider, has had considerable success in recruiting ZANU-PF stalwarts to his campaign.  Among the ZANU-PF figures now openly supporting Makoni is former intelligence chief Dumiso Dabengwa – a man who was once offered the vice-presidency by Mugabe.  

Yet the most significant player is retired army General Solomon Mujuru, the husband of Vice-President Joyce Mujuru. Although he has made some attempts to disassociate himself from the Makoni campaign, he seems to be the real power behind Makoni's challenge.

Mujuru may be trying to ensure that Mugabe's opponents win enough seats in the parliamentary elections (Senate and House of Assembly) to push for impeachment proceedings against the president.  Should that happen, Mujuru's wife would become one of the front-runners to succeed Mugabe.  

Fin de siecle?

Mugabe has banned election observers from Western countries. He has full personal control of the Election Commission and the recent redistricting exercise in effect amounts to gerrymandering.  He has succeeded in making sure that a raft of measures designed to open up the electoral process will be enacted only after the election.  He claimed that to do otherwise would deny the people a say in the matter.  

Mugabe will succeed in rigging the election, but with his traditional sources of patronage restricted, the foundations of his power are beginning to crumble.