Arab nuclear ambitions

Tuesday, March 25

In the last two years, more than a dozen Arab states have announced plans to pursue nuclear power programmes. This has raised concerns that such countries are interested in developing nuclear weapons.

The Arab states argue that nuclear power is part of a wider strategy to reduce dependence on oil and gas for energy. With growing populations, all the states face high and increasing energy demands. In addition, several intend to use at least some nuclear power for desalination. States that possess oil and gas also argue that exporting these resources is more economically advantageous than consuming them domestically. Thus, developing nuclear energy can appear economically sound even to hydrocarbons-rich countries. Many also view nuclear programmes as a technological milestone on the path of economic development.

However, security concerns could be a key factor:

• Iran. For Saudi Arabia, a nuclear energy programme providing a possible foundation for a future nuclear weapons programme could serve as a hedge against a potentially nuclear-armed Iran.
• Israel. The Arab states have lived with a nuclear-armed Israel for decades. Yet some Arab states still view Israel as a potential threat and also would gain a sense of national pride by matching Israel's nuclear weapons.
• Regional. Other regional issues help drive the programmes, such as the rivalry between Algiers and Rabat.
• Global. Arab states increasingly doubt US security guarantees and may be losing confidence in the global non-proliferation regime. Developing nuclear technology and facilities with a view to eventually developing nuclear weapons provides a hedge against future global security crises.