Global Risks

Major changes since March 13, 2008.

Headline risk

The risk has grown of return to serious disruption in the Balkans

• The Macedonian government is looking increasingly unstable, thanks in part to ethnic Albanian rivalries.
• Violence against the UN presence in northern Kosovo has been justified as a response to Western states' recognition of the Pristina government.
• Elections in Serbia, which will pit ultra-nationalist Radicals against pro-EU liberals could squeeze out moderates and bring into office anti-EU Radicals.
• Extremist anger over Kosovo could spill over into violence in the multi-ethnic Serbian province of Vojvodina, where Serb refugees are ripe for manipulation by nationalists.

 

Other rising risks

• armed hostilities between India and Pakstan
• deep recession in the United States

 

Other declining risks

• CHINA/TAIWAN: Armed hostilities

You can see a complete list of Global Stress Points we are monitoring on the guest page of the live service.

You can learn more about the Global Stress Points Matrix™, or request a trial through the service information page.