Doha death?

A breakthrough on a trade deal may give the world economy -- currently roiled by financial turmoil -- the shot of confidence it needs. Yet talks on agriculture, crucial to the success of the Doha Development Round, are progressing at snail's pace, putting the whole timetable in jeopardy. 

Negotiations have stalled over demands from developing countries for an end to agricultural subsidies in rich nations. Brazil, which demands a general reduction of trade barriers, is considered crucial to ending the impasse because it is a leader of the G20 group of developing nations. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and the head of the European Commission said last week they were optimistic an agreement would be reached soon, but it risks being shunted into the sidings by the US election and next year's change in administration in Washington.

Even on the best of assumptions about future progress, the Doha Round cannot be concluded until late 2008. And a realistic assessment suggests that failure is more likely than success.