Sarkozy: damage limitation

The centre-right UMP party of President Nicolas Sarkozy will try to limit the extent of defeat in Sunday's second round of municipal elections.

In last week's first round, the UMP only received 45.5% of the vote, compared to 47.9% for the left. Municipal elections are traditionally dominated by local issues, yet 29% of voters said they used the opportunity to punish Sarkozy and only 16% voted to show their support for his policies. While this was a clear warning for the president, he could have fared worse. Both left and right only managed to claim one large city each (Lyon and Bordeaux respectively) without having to go for this week's run-off.

Of the other important cities, the left looks set to keep Paris and the right is on course to maintain its grip on Nice. The outcome of hotly-contested Marseille, Toulouse and Strasbourg, all currently ruled by the right, will to some extent depend on the highly unpredictable supporters of the centrist MoDem party, which was eliminated after the first round. It will also depend on turnout: a relatively modest 66.5% last Sunday was especially detrimental to the right and opinion polls showed that many disgruntled UMP supporters voiced their disenchantment with Sarkozy by abstaining and not by switching loyalties.

Sarkozy, probably wary of his unpopularity, has made every effort to stay out of the election campaign and let it be dominated by local politicians and issues. He will hope that voters were keen to give him a warning in the first round, but will rally behind their centre-right mayors in the decisive second round. However, if as the left hopes, it will be able to turn France's cities red, Sarkozy's political career will become even more challenging, given the strong influence mayors enjoy in French politics.