Global Risks

Major changes since March 6, 2008.

Headline risk

The risk has grown of major disorder in Cental Asia.

• US troops attached to NATO will be allowed to use the Uzbek military base of Termez (operated by Germany) if travelling aboard German aircraft. This new round of engagement risks strengthening the authoritarianism of the Uzbek regime and presages a diminution of Western influence there on issues such as democracy and human rights.
• Central Asian states will try to raise the prices Gazprom pays for their gas. Just before the next round of talks between Gazprom and Ukrainian state energy company, Naftohaz, Gazprom complained that Central Asian suppliers were demanding "European prices" for deliveries from next year. This points to increased diplomatic tensions.

 

Other rising risks

• Military conflict in North Korea
• Return to serious disruption in the Balkans

 

Other declining risks

• Return to Russian regional ascendancy

You can see a complete list of Global Stress Points we are monitoring on the guest page of the live service.

You can learn more about the Global Stress Points Matrix™, or request a trial through the service information page.