Zapatero tipped for victory

Prime Minister Luis Rodriguez Zapatero will hope for good weather on Sunday, because it will boost turnout in the general election. High turnout is what his Socialist party (PSOE) needs to stay in power for another four years.

Opinion polls are clearly on Zapatero's side:

Since coming to office, his party has maintained its lead in the polls; the last authorised poll before Sunday's election gave the PSOE a 4% advantage.
An overwhelming majority of Spaniards are convinced PSOE will win and most, irrespective of their voting intentions, want another PSOE-led government.
Zapatero enjoys much greater personal popularity than his challenger Mariano Rajoy, leader of the conservative People's Party (PP).
According to viewers of two televised election debates between the adversaries, Zapatero was the clear winner.

Yet Rajoy can rely on his supporters to go to the polling stations on Sunday, and his zero-tolerance stance on terrorism, immigration and crime might have gained some additional appeal as the economic outlook for Spain worsened during the election campaign. The result will depend on the large number of eligible voters who are still undecided whether to make use of their democratic right on Sunday and on the behaviour of an exceptionally high number of first time voters. Both groups are traditionally more inclined towards the Left, and Zapatero's challenge will be to get them to vote.