Iran: Ahmadi-Nejad's recovery

This week, Iranians vote in Majlis elections. Hopes that reformists might make a comeback and that the poll might become a referendum on President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad's controversial presidency have been dashed by the disqualification of key opposition candidates.

Despite his dismal economic record, and his failure to deliver on populist redistributive campaign promises, Ahmadi-Nejad's hardline conservative faction enters the elections in surprisingly good shape.  The UN approved a third round of sanctions on Iran this week, but the evaporation of the US/Israeli threat to take military action against Iran after the publication of the US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) in December is widely viewed in Iran as vindication of his uncompromising stance on the issue.  He has seen off his main rival on the nuclear front, Ali Larijani, and seems to enjoy more solid backing from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who ultimately calls the shots. 

And this week, no doubt with Khamenei's firm backing, he made a historic visit to Iraq.  The open and 'normal' style of the trip was in sharp contrast to the furtive and unannounced visits of US leaders, all no doubt designed to show that it is Iran which really counts in the Gulf.

The Iranians now seem resigned to waiting for the next US administration to come into office before trying again for the 'grand bargain' Bush has rejected.  And Ahmadi-Nejad himself looks less certain to lose in Iran's presidential election in 2009 than he did, despite a record that would lose most elections in most places.  This increases the likelihood that Iran will over-reach itself and miss the boat on US re-engagement.