India: Congress's election test

The ruling Congress Party is bracing itself for election results this week from the northeastern states of Tripura, Meghalaya and Nagaland that may augur badly for its fortunes in national polls that must take place by May 2009.

The states are small but Congress can ill afford more electoral humiliation. It has sustained a series of local and state level electoral losses over the past year. Most recently, it has failed to make gains in Gujarat, where another victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party has revived the Hindu nationalists' fortunes.

Separatist and tribal conflicts have long raged in the northeastern states, where voting took place over the last few weeks. Local politics is highly complex, and does not have a significant political influence nationally. Yet there are plans to develop the restive states, which are home to natural resources such as gas, uranium and coal and key to 'Look East' plans to build links with South-east Asian neighbours.

Congress' principal adversaries in the polls were parties with which it is allied on the national stage. Coalition management is not a strong point and could be further complicated in the coming months. More significant election tests follow this year in Karnataka, Jammu and Kashmir, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.