Global Risks

Major changes since February 28, 2008.

Headline risk

The risk has grown of deep recession in the United States.

• Fourth quarter economic weakness was more widespread than first believed, despite the boost that a weaker dollar has given US overseas trade.
• The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its non-manufacturing index, which takes the temperature of the huge US services economy, rose to 49.3 last month. Values below 50 indicate contraction, so the report points towards contraction.
• The Federal Reserve's 'beige book' -- a collection of reports on economic conditions by regional Fed banks -- described the economy as "softening or weakening" in eight of the twelve Fed districts, and observed "subdued, slow or modest growth" in the other four districts.

 

Other rising risks

• Return to serious disruption in the Balkans

You can see a complete list of Global Stress Points we are monitoring on the guest page of the live service.

You can learn more about the Global Stress Points Matrix™, or request a trial through the service information page.