Cooling tempers in Colombia

Regional tensions have been ratcheted up to uneasy levels in recent days, following a Colombian military incursion into Ecuadorian territory that killed 17 members of the FARC rebel group, and the Venezuelan government's decision to send troops to its own border with Colombia to avert any similar event. 

However, despite the rising decibels on all sides, the risk of conflict is likely to recede.  A confusing Venezuelan decision (later denied) to close the Colombian border is unsustainable, given Venezuelan dependence on Colombian food exports, while Colombian President Alvaro Uribe's threat to take his Venezuelan counterpart, Hugo Chavez, to the International Criminal Court, is impracticable.

However, the Venezuelan Defence Ministry can claim that the positioning of troops on the border has safeguarded the country, and Uribe's ICC promise allowed him to sound tough before a domestic constituency, thus allowing both to claim that they have not backed down.  Most importantly, last week's decision by the Organisation of American States to investigate the incident, after criticising Colombia for the incursion, will allow the issue to be put on hold for a few weeks while tempers cool.

With too much at stake for the main players, and determination on the part of important regional actors such as Brazil and Chile to avert any renewed hostilities, further belligerence seems increasingly likely to be kept to the verbal level -- not least given Colombia's military superiority over its neighbours. 

However, any possibility of a further incursion into any of Colombia's neighbours would reignite tensions, while fears that any miscalculation could risk an escalation of hostilities may damage the regional investment climate.