Kenya: peace prospects?

Although a power-sharing deal has been announced, the threat of renewed violence in Kenya has not been eliminated. 

Earlier this week, former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan roundly criticised both President Mwai Kibaki’s Party of National Unity and Raila Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement for dragging their feet on a political settlement, following weeks of post-election violence in which an estimated 2,000 died and hundreds of thousands were displaced.  Annan temporarily suspended the formal mediation process, and met with both leaders in order to pressure them directly. 

The two sides appear to have reached preliminary agreement on the formation of a ‘national unity’ government, including ODM members in the cabinet.  Most significantly, a prime minister’s post will be created, to be filled by Odinga.  However, the talks had broken down over what powers he would wield, with the ODM demanding a division of the president’s executive power, but Kibaki unwilling to cede any of the president’s considerable authority. 

The power-sharing deal is a significant step forward, but the details of how power will be divided between Odinga and Kibaki and within the cabinet will be contentious, and the coalition government will be fragile and prone to deadlock. Worse, the threat of violence -- in places motivated by issues beyond the disputed election -- does not disappear with the announcement of a deal.