China: rising leaders

The National People’s Congress (NPC) meets Wednesday, and will send key signals about the next generation of leaders in the world’s fastest-growing economic power.

This year the annual plenary gathering of parliament follows the 17th Chinese Communist Party (CCP) National Congress last October, which in effect launched the transition to the fifth generation of CCP leaders, to take charge in 2012.  The NPC will confirm the state and government positions that parallel the political line-up.

At the highest level, watch what happens to Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang, favourites in the running to take over from President and party General Secretary Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao.  Both were elevated to the elite Politburo Standing Committee in October. Keep an eye out as well for Zeng Qinghong’s replacement as vice-president.  Vice-premier and state councillor appointments are also important, both in themselves and for what they signal about power balances within the ruling elite. The regime’s trouble-shooter extraordinaire, Wu Yi, is expected to step down as a vice-premier, to point to just one key vacancy.

The NPC is also expected to usher in structural changes to the central bureaucracy, although some that have been long in deliberation look unlikely to make it to any vote, given powerful vested interests.  There has been talk of new ‘super ministries’ in energy and finance, and environmental work is in need of upgrading. However, the National Development and Reform Commission, for example, may well have been throwing its considerable weight around to protect its powers in key areas. Nevertheless, the CCP Central Committee has just ended a plenary session in preparation for the NPC, and has signalled restructuring within the State Council, or cabinet.