South Korea: Lee unshackled

Lee Myung-bak takes over the presidency on Monday. He will hit the ground running, with some winds that were against him abating. His transition team has been busy since his election on December 19, and he arrives with a full programme of priorities, from accelerated growth to transforming the country into the region’s foremost English-speaking nation.

Forming a government has not gone smoothly:

• For a while, the United Democratic Party (UDP) looked as though it was going to block his plans to cut ministries to slim the bureaucracy.

• Lee pressed on. A week before taking power, he confirmed a cabinet of 13 ministers plus two without portfolio for 18 ministries, when under his restructuring proposals there were to be only 13 ministries.

• That would have made for messy government, and a compromise was reached a couple of days later.

At the same time, special prosecutors reported on their investigation into Lee's past business dealings, clearing him of misconduct for a second time. Had they not, Lee would have taken power under a shadow that could have undermined his credibility and his Grand National Party’s (GNP) electoral lead. As it is, Lee should now get a post-inauguration boost to follow these pre-inauguration fillips. The GNP can be expected to take the National Assembly following elections on April 9.

However, from then on life could get difficult. Lee comes to office with so much in his in-tray that there is every chance that his administration will sink below the waves of policy overdrive almost a soon as he crosses the Blue House threshold:

• He is likely to fall short on a number of his targets -- for example, it is highly unlikely that South Korea will achieve 7% annual growth, as he intends.

• It is equally unlikely to climb up to seventh place on international rankings, not least because other economies will hardly be standing still.

• Controversy over his proposed cross-country canal will rage on throughout his single term in office.

Lee intends transforming South Korea, and has five years to do so. While he finds himself freed of some of the shackles that threatened to slow him down on taking power, he could find himself weighed down by disappointed expectations as the years roll by. Burn out by 2010 is not inconceivable.