Global Risks

Major changes since February 14, 2008.

Headline risk

The risk increased of regional conflagration in the Horn of Africa after the UN peace-keeping mission along the disputed border between Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) began a "temporary" pullout from the Temporary Security Zone (TSZ), heightening bilateral tensions. UNMEE retains only administrative status within Ethiopia, so its ability to provide a buffer is significantly reduced. Heightening tensions on the border with Ethiopia and a growing sense of international isolation in Eritrea have led to increased militarisation at home and an aggressive, adventurist foreign policy across the region, which is reducing the potential for a resolution to the border dispute.

Other rising risks

• Civil war in Lebanon
• Return to Russian regional ascendancy

Declining risks

• Armed hostilities between India and Pakistan
• State collapse in Pakistan

You can see a complete list of Global Stress Points we are monitoring on the guest page of the live service.

You can learn more about the Global Stress Points Matrix™, or request a trial through the service information page.