Spain: Close election race?

Mariano Rajoy, main challenger to Socialist Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, will have to give a convincing performance on Monday, when they confront each other in the first of two televised election debates.  

A survey by the publicly funded Centro de Investigaciones Sociologicas (CIS) conducted in January and published last week indicated that Rajoy’s centre-right People’s Party (PP) is closing in on the Socialists (PSOE) who are now only leading by a statistically insignificant margin.  The PSOE spectacularly won the 2004 general election with a 4.8% advantage.  The election took place only three days after the March 11 bomb attacks in Madrid, an event which many claim tipped the balance in favour of the Socialists at the very last minute.  March 9, 2008 is payback time for the PP, while the Socialists are keen to prove that they won 2004 on merit and not by chance.

Polls taken over the past four years show that PSOE’s lead over the PP has slowly narrowed from 10% to 1.5%.  However, the PP has not once managed to overtake its rival.  What is more, the CIS January survey clearly shows that the electorate’s sympathies lie with the incumbents:

• Of the 18,000 people polled, 52.4% think the Socialists will win, but only 15.3% can see the PP arriving at the top.
• Regardless of their actual voting intentions, 40% want PSOE to return to government, while only 25.3% would like their country to be ruled by the PP.
• When asked to judge the performance of the two leaders by marks out of ten, respondents gave Zapatero an average of 5.36. His challenger Rajoy only received a 3.95.
• Similarly, 50.4% would prefer Zapatero as the next prime minister, compared to only 25.3% who would like to see Rajoy getting the job.

Given the importance of appearance and personality in a televised debate, Rajoy’s challenge on Monday will be formidable. He will be appealing to the most conservative parts of the electorate with ‘zero-tolerance’ statements on terrorism, (juvenile) crime and illegal immigration. He will also attack his rival’s lack of morality for having introduced laws facilitating fast-track divorce and gay marriage, undermining what Rajoy perceives to be traditional Spanish family values.  And while he is hoping that his PP will as in the past be more effective than the PSOE in getting its core supporters to the polls, this might not be enough this time.

This year’s contest will see an unprecedented number of first time voters (1.7 million). The Socialists' policies of assisting first-time buyers, promoting women’s rights (including abortion and maternity leave) and modernising the national curriculum are more likely to appeal to this crucial group of the electorate. More importantly, after 14 years of spectacular economic growth, the country now faces a serious downturn and soaring inflation.  While neither leader has so far convinced the electorate that it has found a solution to the country's economic problems, Spaniards might ultimately prefer a government strong on social welfare, than one strong on social values.