'Low information voters'

The two candidates for the Democratic party’s presidential nomination, Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, will on Tuesday stage a high-profile debate in Cleveland, Ohio.  The clash will be heavily trailed in the media, as it comes just a week before the crucial Texas and Ohio primaries on March 4.  Yet despite the hoopla, perhaps the most important segment of the electorate will not be tuning in: ‘low information voters’ (LIVs).

Pollsters use the term to describe those voters who are the least ‘information aware’, and who are therefore the least susceptible to ‘momentum politics’ -- or recent media trends in favour of a particular candidate:

• These individuals tend to be relatively uneducated, rarely subscribe to newspapers (particularly major national dailies), and are seldom internet-savvy. 
• The snatches of news they receive tend to come via local television news, or word-of-mouth.
• They are also disproportionately elderly, or reside in rural areas.

LIVs do not follow polling or opinion trends, and tend to be less aware of, and susceptible to, the changes in how candidates are perceived by the media over the course of a race.  This makes them especially amenable to candidate ‘brand identification’, such as Clinton’s association with her husband, the former president.

These demographic characteristics make white LIVs a crucial element of Clinton’s voting base -- and her most loyal supporters.  Where they turn out in large numbers -- as they did in the Oklahoma primary -- she usually does well.  Indeed, the large numbers of LIVs in Ohio and Texas mean that she will depend on their support to secure victory.

However, Obama has one crucial advantage in the battle to win over LIVs: cash.  Perhaps the best way to reach these voters is through television advertisements -- although in an era of fragmented media outlets and innumerable cable and satellite channels, this takes a considerable bankroll.  Fortunately for the Illinois senator, he has built a significant fundraising advantage over his New York rival:

• Obama beat Clinton in the January fundraising sweepstakes by nearly 2-1, and she was forced to lend her campaign 5 million dollars of her own money.
• Therefore, he could afford to outspend his opponent by almost 4-1 in Wisconsin, which may have played a crucial role in his solid victory there.

Obama will continue to dominate the airwaves in Texas and Ohio.  With more than 10 days to go before the primaries there, this will give him ample opportunity to cut into her lead among LIVs.