Deadlock in Hamburg

German Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) are faltering in their effort to retain control of Hamburg in Sunday’s election, having ruled the country's second-largest city for eight years.

Hamburg, where the centre-right CDU has enjoyed an absolute majority since 2004, is one of four German states to hold elections this year. Yet the arrival of Die Linke, a motley crew of East German ex-communists and West German dissident Social Democrats (SPD), is complicating matters.

The new left-wing party made it into parliaments in Lower Saxony and Hesse last month, the first time it has entered assemblies in western states. Recent polls suggest it will also do so on Sunday. Yet as the other parties have to date spurned it as a potential coalition partner, deadlock has ensued.

According to a poll commissioned by public broadcaster ARD, the CDU will take 39% of the vote, ahead of the SPD on 35%. The Greens can expect 10%, Die Linke 8% and the liberal FDP 5%. The margins may be even thinner if the centre-left parties can capitalise on a recent tax scandal involving up to 700 prominent business leaders. Based on these results, the CDU would be unable to form a government with its preferred coalition partner, the FDP, while an SPD-Greens alliance would similarly fail to secure a majority. While the SPD has formed ruling coalitions with Die Linke in eastern states, including the city-state Berlin, such an option would be politically problematic in western Germany, and would require at least the participation of the Greens. 

More likely is that either the Greens or the FDP switch their traditional alliances to form a three-party coalition on the right or left respectively.  Given that the CDU and Greens already successfully rule the Hamburg borough of Altona together, a regional CDU-FDP-Green coalition is not unrealistic.