Kosovo: peaceful transition?

By Sunday, Europe will have a new state: Kosovo will proclaim independence.

Pristina unveils its new flag and constitution to broad consensus, not unanimous recognition.

The declaration of independence is almost certain to be made in the hours leading up to a meeting of European foreign ministers in Brussels on Monday, and Pristina's announcement could be bolstered almost immediately by recognition from EU member states. The transition to independence will see all manner of political posturing, but should be peaceful.

• A clear majority of the 27 EU members -- certainly no less than 20 -- are expected to recognise Kosovo rapidly.
• The US will weigh in at the same time, or shortly afterwards.
• Moscow will snarl over the deployment of a European stability mission, arguing that any such mission requires a mandate from the UN Security Council.
• Other EU members will also have reservations. Spain, Slovakia, and Romania fear the precedent for independence-seeking movements elsewhere -- specifically, Basques in Spain, and Hungarians in Slovakia and Romania. Of all the EU members, however, the most hostile is Cyprus. Nicosia has said it will not recognise any form of unilateral independence, its view on Kosovo coloured by political issues closer to home, where the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus was unilaterally declared in 1983, following a 1974 Turkish invasion.

Belgrade will huff and puff, but refrain from retaliatory measures. Serbia's nationalist Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica, who has said he will not allow such a creation to exist for a minute, will slam Western support for the move and invoke UN Security Council Resolution 1244.