East Timor: uneasy peace

The current state of emergency in East Timor will last at least until February 23, as the country responds to Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao's call for calm following last week's assassination attempt on President Jose Ramos-Horta.

The death of rebel leader Alfredo Reinado in the gunfight at Ramos-Horta's home does not leave East Timor, a country with a history of sudden eruptions of violence, in a more secure state. Stability remains fragile, particularly in the context of underlying social divides and widespread unemployment and poverty. Yet Reinado's death is significant, and the response of his supporters may shape developments over the coming days.

Despite fears that pro-Reinado members of the ruling coalition might withdraw their support, sparking the collapse of the government, there have not yet been any signs of a split. Reinado played a key role leading mutineers who split from the army in 2006 after a dispute over pay and conditions escalated into violence that was rooted in deep regional and ethnic divides. He had represented a threat to state stability ever since, though he had been engaged in talks with the government.

Australian troops continue to arrive in Dili to help international peacekeepers enforce an 8pm curfew, and clamp down on unauthorised public gatherings. Both Australia and Indonesia have justifiable concerns about the stability of South-east Asia's youngest nation: civil war in East Timor following Portugal's abrupt de-colonisation in 1975 caused a flood of refugees across the border into Indonesia.