Cyprus: three-way split

"Only the Pythia knows," writes Cypriot daily Politis in reference to the final result of this week's presidential election in Cyprus. But even the Pythia, the prophecy-giving priestess who presided over the Oracle of Apollo at Delphi, would have declared the contest too close to call at this point.

According to a poll by Noverna published in Politis, the election is currently a dead heat: 30.5% of respondents would vote for Yiannakis Cassoulides, a former foreign minister and candidate for the right-of-centre Democratic Rally party; 30.3% would re-elect veteran incumbent Tassos Papadopoulos; and 29.1% would back Demetris Christofias, the leader of AKEL, the unreconstructed Cyprus communist party. This will likely lead to a run-off on February 24. The winner will oversee an attempt to mend fences between Greek and Turkish Cypriots on opposing sides of a UN-policed Green Line.

Background

Cyprus has been split into two pieces ever since 1974, when, in response to an Athens-backed coup attempting to unify the island with Greece, Turkey invaded the island and seized the northern sliver. Turkish Cypriots in the south moved north and Greek Cypriots in the north moved south. Now the only country that  formally recognises the 'Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus' is Turkey itself; everyone else recognises the southern, Greek-speaking part, as the official government.

As the EU mushroomed in size, there were hopes that Cyprus could enter as a united entity, but UN-sponsored unification talks -- which proposed the creation of the United Cyprus Republic -- were unsuccessful. Cyprus joined the EU, still divided, in May 2004, and has frustrated Turkey's EU aspirations since then. Sparring between Turkey and Cyprus has also hampered joint EU-NATO cooperation in Kosovo and Afghanistan.

Hardliner president?

Papadopoulos is seeking re-election for a second term in office, and his main backer is the Democratic Party (DIKO), which he led for a number of years. He has also secured the support of the Social Democrats Movement EDEK, the European Party and the Ecologists. Papadopoulos, whose authoritarian manner has earned him a 'hardliner' label, led Nicosia's rejection of a UN reunification blueprint in 2004, with critics charging that he has made no real attempt to break the deadlock since then. He has said his vision is a Cyprus free of Turkish troops.

Christofias and Kassoulides are seen as more moderate than Papadopoulos.

• Christofias insists his first move as president would be to meet Mehmet Ali Talat, the Turkish Cypriot leader, with a view to relaunching UN-sponsored direct peace talks at the earliest possible date. Many AKEL members support the international community's efforts to increase trade across the Green Line and other moves to end the Turkish Cypriots' economic isolation.
• Cassoulides is as seen as the most flexible Greek Cypriot politician on the Cyprus issue. Yet in a highly conservative society, his message of reconciliation, including a proposal to halve the time Greek Cypriots are required to serve in the National Guard, may harm him in the event of a second round.

The UN is expected to send aides in March to assess reunification prospects, yet they are likely to founder if Papadopoulos wins a second term. Even an unlikely acceptance by Greek Cypriots of a UN plan will not necessarily lead to a settlement, as the majority of Turkish Cypriots now favour a two-state solution.