Kosovo: setting a precedent

Serbia's presidential election is over, its voters choosing future hope over past resentment by re-electing pro-western President Boris Tadic. It means the unilateral independence of Kosovo is likely to be declared within weeks, forcing Belgrade to face up to the loss of the province. The consequences of the move will resonate far beyond the Balkans.

Kosovo's independence will be immediately recognised by Washington, followed by leading members of the European Union, including the UK, France and Germany. Moscow, out of an insistence on international consensus and a growing readiness to challenge the US and EU, says it will not support anything that the Serbs oppose.

Other EU members will also have reservations. Spain, Slovakia, and Romania fear the precedent for independence-seeking movements elsewhere -- specifically, Basques in Spain, and Hungarians in Slovakia and Romania.

Of all the EU members, however, the most hostile is Cyprus. Nicosia has said it will not recognise any form of unilateral independence, its view on Kosovo coloured by political issues closer to home, where the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus was unilaterally declared in 1983, following a 1974 Turkish invasion.

The island has remained divided between a Turkish Cypriot north and government-controlled Greek Cypriot south, ever since Turkish troops seized the north in response to an Athens-engineered coup to unite the island with Greece. Athens, which has long-standing sympathy for fellow-Orthodox Serbia, will also be worried about copycat separatism in the Turkish Republic if Kosovo wins recognition from the US and UK.

Any declaration of independence from Pristina comes at a sensitive time for Cyprus. A presidential election in the island is looming -- the first round is on February 17 -- and that may be a good opportunity for UN negotiations to be launched, or for the divided island to be split for good.