The 'Carla Effect'

French President Nicolas Sarkozy would be well advised to stay off the campaign trail ahead of March municipal elections in France.

An opinion poll published last week by independent pollsters LH2 showed a sharp decline in Sarkozy's popularity rating; it plunged 13 points in January to 41%. It would be wrong to attribute Sarkozy's plunging approval ratings to his well-publicised marriage to his girlfriend Carla Bruni -- a supermodel-turned-popstar who had been dating the president for three months -- yet his whirlwind romance and shotgun wedding have not helped his credibility.  

The French are primarily disillusioned with the rising cost of living, and Sarkozy's public display of his private life rubs brine into those wounds. His relationship has made voters question the president's commitment to his job and left a dent in the dignity of his office:

• 84 % are dissatisfied with their purchasing power, 75% are concerned by the apparent lack of economic growth and 68% are worried by the current state of the job market, although Sarkozy has not been helped by a recent rise in raw material costs, the sub-prime crisis and the spectre of a US recession.
• There is an aversion to 'le style Sarkozy'; 76% of French voters are unhappy with the display of the president's private life, and left-wing voters have accused him of behaving more like a rock star than a politician.
• More seriously, voters feel as though they have been duped; Liberation, which is a centre-left newspaper, writes that popular disaffection with Sarkozy springs from a perception that the president is more worried about himself than his people, and is not conducting himself as a head of state.

Such abrupt -- and hefty -- withdrawals of support are rare in a president's first year of power. The only precedent came in 1996, when backing for Sarkozy's predecessor Jacques Chirac fell off a cliff following strikes over his doomed bid to reform pensions.

The disavowals of support are widespread:

• Just 40% of men have a positive opinion of Sarkozy, a loss of 14 points from a month ago;
• 41% of women look upon Sarkozy favourably, a loss of 13 points;
• 38% of 18-24 year-olds have confidence in the president, a drop of 15 points;
• 37% of 50-64 year-olds view Sarkozy as a good leader, a fall of 16 points;
• The president has also lost significant support from office workers, manual labourers, and left-wing sympathisers.

However, he still has a 'hardcore' of support in some quarters: supporters of the UMP, Sarkozy's party, still have an overwhelmingly positive view of the president, with 91% viewing him positively. Voters aged 65% and over still view Sarkozy favourably: 56% have a positive opinion of the president. 

The poor opinion polls may make Sarkozy think twice before hitting the campaign trail for the upcoming municipal elections in March. He has made some populist concessions, which contradict his election ticket rhetoric promising a break with France's 'bad old' past. Yet short-term concessions to boost his popularity may only damage his credibility in the long term.