Democratic dynamism

The race for the Democratic presidential nomination has seen plenty of divisive moments, not least the bitter exchanges between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, but it seems to be generating greater enthusiasm than the Republican contest as the United States moves towards the "Super Tuesday" primary of 22 states.

The graphs show that Democrats have set records for turnout in the first four contests in which both parties have competed, substantially exceeding the Republican showing. Overall, Democrats have so far outnumbered Republicans at primary polling places by a rate of about 7 to 5.

• In Iowa, around 239,000 Democrats turned out at the caucuses, almost twice the all-time record. Republicans also doubled their turnout in Iowa, but still only reached 114,000.
• In New Hampshire, around 287,000 Democrats voted, almost double the 156,862 in 2000, while Republican turnout decreased slightly to 238,000.
• In Nevada, more than 116,000 voters attended Democratic Party caucuses. Eight years ago, the gatherings attracted only about 1,000 votes. Republicans also broke turnout records, but their total of 44,315 votes was about a third the size of the Democrats.
• In South Carolina, 532,227 Democratic voters showed up. GOP turnout in the state primary a week earlier fell from 573,101 in 2000 to about 431,000, a drop of nearly 25%.

Obama charisma?

Democratic voter zeal is driven by a number of factors: interest stemming from the strong candidacies of both a black man and a woman, anger about the country's current political leadership -- those who register strong disapproval of the president are far more likely to be eager to vote than those with less strong views -- and rising economic anxiety. The pizzazz surrounding Obama's campaign also seems to have galvanised the electorate, attracting unusual numbers of independents and young people to Democratic contests. A recent Pew survey found that 4 in 10 Americans said they found the Democratic contest "very interesting," nearly double the percentage (21%) that described the Republican race in the same terms.

Relative Republican apathy can be attributed to conservative movement fatigue after seven years of President George Bush stewardship. Republicans are playing down the turnout numbers, dismissing Democratic enthusiasm as typical for a party in opposition. Both Ronald Reagan and the senior George Bush were elected after Republican primaries in which turnout was lower than in the Democratic primaries -- yet, generally, turnout in the presidential primary favours the party out of power.

One thing that may adversely affect the eventual Democratic turnout in November is the mutual ill feeling between Obama and Clinton. Both will be wary of the dispute spiralling out of control; the eventual winner of the party nomination may find they have alienated the losing candidate's supporters. Yet Geoffrey Garin, a Democratic pollster, has said:  "There's obviously a heated battle going on in the Democratic Party, but this is not a party at war with itself. It's not just a slogan to say there's a lot more that unites Democrats than divides them, and that's not clear at all with the Republicans."