Europe's power vacuum

Smaller EU member states will look suspiciously to London on Tuesday where the big four -- Germany, France the United Kingdom and Italy -- are meeting to discuss the recent turbulence in the global financial markets.

The other 23 member states and the European Commission were unhappy when they found out about the upcoming meeting. They fear the big four will try to coordinate their policies in an effort to overrule the rest. Yet it is doubtful any one of the big four, or all of them together, could take a grab at European leadership.

Italy's Romano Prodi, having been Commission President, is undoubtedly the most experienced European of them all.  Yet his weakness in domestic politics has not only reduced his influence at the EU-level, but also forced him to act occasionally against current EU policies, such as when he supported the large-scale expulsion of Romanian gypsies from Italy.  In fact, his situation is so precarious, that he might not even be in charge of his country by the time Tuesday's meeting takes place.

UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown, despite arranging Tuesday's meeting, is equally unlikely to emerge as a leader of the EU, or any other international body for that matter.  His preoccupation with domestic policy, disinterest in foreign affairs and contempt for the EU are ill-kept secrets. In his first major foreign policy speech in November, he barely mentioned the Union, and a month later he snubbed what was the EU's greatest milestone for years (the signing ceremony of the Lisbon Treaty).

By contrast, Germany's Angela Merkel is a committed European.  Her principled, calm and reserved style won her great admiration during her EU and G8 presidencies last year.  However, her 'value-oriented' foreign policy, focusing on human rights and environmental protection, is highly contested within her own country. And wary of her country's historical legacy, she is reluctant to assume a prominent leadership role.

This leaves France's Nicolas Sarkozy, who has made no secret of his ambitions.  Yet his EU record so far is mixed: he has he repeatedly stolen the limelight from his European counterparts (Germany, Portugal and Slovenia), and his proposals (Mediterranean Union, NATO cooperation, nuclear energy, the 'wise men' reflection group) have proved extremely divisive.  Moreover, his recent interventions in Colombia, United States, North Africa, China, India and the Middle East suggest that he does not want to limit his influence to European matters.

Even if the big four were to add Spain and Poland to their ranks, the picture does not improve.  With elections coming up on March 9, Spain's Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero is currently more worried about the future of his job than that of Europe. In Poland, a battle is raging between the pro-European prime minister and the eurosceptic president as to who should be responsible for foreign affairs.

The leaders of the EU's largest member states already lack the necessary energy and appetite for the Europe. More importantly, they do not trust each other.  Smaller countries may find it productive to encourage the big four to take on more responsibility and boost the European project within and outside of its borders, though they are unlikely to do so.