Israel: Winograd reports

This week sees the widely anticipated final report of the Winograd Commission, the Israeli government-appointed inquiry, chaired by retired judge Eliyahu Winograd, which has been investigating the Second Lebanon War in July and August 2006.

Its interim report last May claimed some major scalps, notably then Defence Minister Amir Peretz.  The fall-out this time round will fit into two broad categories.

Firstly, there will be a number of lessons for the military and security/intelligence to digest. These should lead to major changes in doctrine and deployment. 

The political fallout will overshadow this.  Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is expected to receive further criticism, but says he will hang on.  The stance of Labour leader and current Defence Minister Ehud Barak will be key.  He may feel obliged by the weight of public opinion to bring Olmert's coalition down and precipitate an election.  But the only likely winner is Likud leader Binyamin Netanyahu.  He would thus prefer to see Olmert's Kadima party do the job for him -– and replace Olmert with Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni.