US/Uzbekistan: rebuilding ties

The head of the US Central Command, Admiral William Fallon, will visit Uzbekistan in the near future. His trip will mark the first high-profile visit to the country by a US official since diplomatic relations were broken off in 2005.

The event that triggered Tashkent's isolation from the West was the Andijan massacre of May 2005, in which hundreds of people were left dead after government troops opened fire on protesting crowds in the city of Andijan. The government maintained that only security forces and terrorists died during the violence, but it refused to allow an international investigation, leading the EU to impose an arms embargo and sanctions on the travel and personal assets of a number of government officials. US relations with Tashkent also deteriorated, and the regime soon handed the United States a notice to vacate the Karshi-Khanabad military airbase.  

President Islam Karimov was left with Russia as his only ally, and he promptly signed a military alliance and strengthened intelligence and energy cooperation with Moscow. Yet Karimov, who in December 2007 was unconstitutionally re-elected for a third seven-year term, is aware of the precariousness of his position, both domestically and internationally. There are indications that he has recently been exploring ways to resume dialogue with the West, and has even held meetings with the EU to discuss human rights and the Andijan massacre.  

The regime has no capacity for profound change. It will remain highly insecure and deeply unpopular, and will continue to exercise authority through repression and the use of force. The vested interests of officials and concerns for their own personal security will limit the scope for change even further. The challenge for the West is whether to resume dialogue with this regime now, hoping for incremental change, or wait until a succession struggle is in full swing and attempt to influence the course of political events in its favour.