Merkel's regional challenges

German Chancellor Angela Merkel only just scraped into power at the 2005 general election, but since then has enjoyed a string of regional victories with her Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party, and now leads 11 of Germany's 16 state governments. The tide could turn this week in the first big test of voter sentiment since the 2005 general election.

Regional elections are due in the western states of Hesse and Lower Saxony on Sunday, as well as Hamburg on February 24; all are currently ruled by the CDU. In Hesse, the CDU may lose its overall majority, forcing the party into a coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD), its junior partner in the 'grand coalition' in Berlin. In Lower Saxony, the CDU may lose votes yet remain in coalition with the pro-business Free Democrats, another poll showed.

A recent series of tragic events, involving youth attacks on older citizens and child abuse cases, and general perceptions of growing inequality are dominating the election agenda. Yet the CDU's poor showing in the polls is an indication that the decision by Roland Koch, the CDU premier of Hesse and the party's vice-chairman, to run a robust campaign based around a tough stance on law and order and immigration might have backfired. The CDU has made stricter penalties for youth crime -- including deportation for offenders of foreign origin -- a key element of its campaign, a proposal strongly criticised by the SPD for its racist undertones -- and promises improved benefits for families and lower income taxes.

By contrast, the SPD seems to have veered left under its chairman, Kurt Beck. It has made a cross-sectoral legal minimum wage its key issue -- ruled out by the CDU for fear of job losses -- and promises improvements in children's rights and protection. With a number of important regional elections in 2008, the CDU and SPD are trying to attract voters by highlighting their differences, which may reduce the workability of the grand coalition at the national level.

Outright defeat would resonate beyond Hesse, dealing a severe blow to Merkel and the CDU nationally.