Has Giuliani left it too late?

Former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani has lost his national polling lead to Senator John McCain -- and recent surveys suggest that he has even surrendered his advantage in his own home state.  Yet on Tuesday, Giuliani will have a crucial impact on the Republican presidential primary contest in Florida, which may shape the party’s nomination battle.

The Giuliani campaign last year adopted one of the most unorthodox electoral strategies in the history of presidential nomination politics: it decided largely to ignore most of the early state primaries.  It argued that the compressed 2008 primary schedule, in which most states vote by early February, meant that the earliest state contests in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina would have little influence on the final outcome.  Instead, Giuliani chose to concentrate on the Florida primary, where the state’s large population of retired New Yorkers (‘snowbirds’) were expected to give him a boost.  A solid victory in the ‘Sunshine State’ might give the ex-mayor an unstoppable surge ahead of ‘Super Tuesday’ on February 5 -- when 22 states (including California, Illinois and New York) hold simultaneous primaries. 

Rudy-come-lately?

Most political analysts -- such as Washington sage Charlie Cook -- thought Giuliani’s approach was, to put it mildly, a major mistake.  Early primary states provide crucial momentum and media attention, which victorious candidates translate into fundraising cash.  Most importantly, a series of quick victories creates the public perception that a candidate is electorally ‘viable’ -- capable of winning support from real voters.  If this sentiment is absent, a candidates’ stock plunges; thus far, Giuliani has not defied conventional wisdom.

But in one respect, the Giuliani campaign’s strategists were right -- this year’s early Republican primaries have only produced a marginal frontrunner (McCain).  In Florida, Giuliani is engaged in a tight four-way battle with McCain, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney.  Even if he fails to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, Giuliani will still have a major impact on the outcome, because he may channel the votes of liberal-moderate Republicans away from McCain.  This might allow Romney, whose campaign was pronounced dead by many media commentators after New Hampshire, back in the race.