Cuba: preparing the ground

Parliamentary elections may mark the beginning of the next stage in a transition towards a post-Fidel Castro government. 

President Fidel Castro has not been seen in public since emergency surgery forced him to yield power to a government headed by his younger brother, Raul, in July 2006. The ailing leader remains head of the Council of State and, despite claiming to be too ill to campaign, is running in parliamentary elections Sunday, a necessary step if he is to hold on to Cuba's top post.  

While the elections could offer an opportunity to formalise Fidel's retirement, it seems clear that he will remain an extremely influential player, even if he does not choose to return to public life. His re-election as president of the Council of State -- also the president of the Council of ministers -- and Head of State is a formality, though Castro has signalled that he may not retain them in the long-term. While Fidel’s presence continues to loom large, any moves towards economic or political liberalisation, however hesitant, will be kept in check.

In a letter published last month, Fidel said his duty was not to cling to office.  His statement that he should not stand in the way of younger people probably does not refer to Raul, who is 76.  If generational change is being prepared, there are few obvious candidates, as nobody has been allowed to cast a shadow over Fidel. This could suggest that the move towards more collective leadership, which has characterised the period since Fidel stepped aside, could be embedded. Felipe Perez Roque, aged 42, a long-time protégé and former head of Fidel's private office and Carlos Lage, aged 56, chief economic adviser, are likely to be key players.

In any case, Fidel has made clear he intends to remain in the background as long as he can.