US primaries: the 'real' campaign begins

Victory in the New Hampshire presidential primaries has righted the foundering campaigns of Democratic Senator Hillary Clinton and Republican Senator John McCain.  Yet the restoration of the pair to frontrunner status by the US media is highly tenuous -- neither has demonstrated a sure grip on their own party, let alone the electorate at large. 

This week, the true test will begin.  The net effect of the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary has been to transform the four weeks before the slew of 'super Tuesday' primaries on February 5 into a genuine vetting period, in which candidates' strengths and weaknesses will be scrutinised by a highly engaged electorate.  Yet while the two early contests failed to definitively determine who the most viable candidates are, they did reveal a number of awkward questions and weaknesses that the campaigns will struggle to answer.

Where's the beef?

The New Hampshire result suggested that Clinton retains a strong grip on Democratic party loyalists and unprecedented support among women.  However, the Iowa vote and New Hampshire exit polling showed serious -- indeed, potentially fatal -- doubts among Democrats about her 'electability'.  A substantial plurality of New Hampshire voters believed that Obama had a better chance of defeating the eventual Republican nominee in November.  Independent voters strongly favoured the Illinois senator.  As a candidate who has made her 'toughness' and 'tested' ability to beat the opposition a selling point, this is a major concern for Clinton.

For his part, Obama appears to have been let down by two groups in New Hampshire: women and the young.  The former voted overwhelmingly for his opponent, and the latter were less enthusiastic about him than their counterparts in Iowa.  To make inroads among older, white, working-class women, Obama may need to make specific, attention-getting domestic policy proposals and speeches.  They want to know, as Walter Mondale once asked, "where's the beef?"

One major unknown, for both candidates, is who has the greatest appeal among blacks and Hispanics.  After Iowa, the former group appeared to be breaking towards Obama.  The Nevada caucuses on January 19, and the South Carolina primary on January 26, will begin to answer this question.  But the biggest test involving these minority constituencies will come in California on February 5:

• Of the 22 states that vote in the Democratic primary on that date, the biggest prizes are California, New York and Illinois, in that order.  The first two states will vote for their junior senators, making California the decider.
• Clinton has enjoyed huge polling leads in California, but the last statewide survey was conducted in mid-December.  Obama has certainly closed the gap since then.

McCain's year?

On the Republican side, the crucial question is whether the party is ready to embrace McCain.  The Arizona senator is unquestionably one of the most outstanding politicians of his generation.  However, although his conservative credentials are undisputed, and he is beloved by many Independent voters, his relationship with his own party has long been awkward.  Put simply, McCain has frequently refused to put party interest above what he sees as the national interest.  This has made him widely admired, but prevented him from securing the party's nomination for the presidency.

For much of 2007 his campaign has been shambolic and quirkily idiosyncratic:

• He has shaken up his staff several times, inhibiting its ability to project a consistent message.
• His policy positions have been defiantly idiosyncratic.  For example, he embraced President George Bush's troop 'surge' in Iraq, while furiously condemning the conduct of the war.
• He has stuck to his stance in favour of comprehensive immigration reform, including a path to citizenship for some illegal migrants, despite the widespread unpopularity of this approach among Republicans.

New Hampshire, with its open primary rules -- allowing Independents to vote in the party contests -- has always been friendly territory for McCain.  Yet his polling numbers in the upcoming Republican contests in Michigan (January 15) and South Carolina (January 19) have been rising recently.  McCain's opponents remain formidable: Mitt Romney is well financed and Mike Huckabee has infectious appeal among evangelical Christians.  But it may finally be McCain's year -- not least, because he may have the best chance of beating Clinton in November.