Taiwan: year of the thaw?

Taiwan's voters elect the 113 members of their Legislative Assembly on Saturday, and a strong win for the opposition Kuomintang Nationalist Party (KMT) -- which favours friendlier relations with Beijing -- looks likely. If the pollsters are accurate, the KMT will take vital momentum into the pivotal presidential ballot in March.

One country, two visions

Taiwan, one of Asia's biggest economies, is an island caught between two political visions.  

• Current President Chen Shui-bian and many in his Progressive Democratic Party want to push Taiwan towards independence. The DPP insists Taiwan is a sovereign territory and has rejected overtures from Beijing in favour of reunification under the 'one country, two systems' political model by which Hong Kong and Macau are ruled. 
• The KMT favours the status quo but wants better ties with Beijing. It has pledged to push for expanded exchanges in tourism, trade and culture.

Since the DPP believes that most Taiwanese favour independence, Chen wants a springtime referendum in tandem with the presidential election on whether the island should enter the UN under the name Taiwan. The KMT also has its own version of the referendum. However, due to China's veto power as a member of the UN Security Council, neither method will likely lead to Taiwan's admission.

Washington and Beijing would both like to see a shift of power back to the KMT. Chinese authorities deeply distrust Chen and have long made it clear that they would never countenance the separation of Taiwan from China. But Beijing has so far taken a softly-softly approach towards the election campaign. It fears that provocative actions could alienate voters and has toned down its rhetoric.

Building momentum

The KMT needs a resounding win to build momentum ahead of the presidential elections. Installing its own candidate is important: during seven years of divided government, the legislature has blocked numerous presidential initiatives, and it is a major cause of Taiwan's political paralysis.

It benefits from a DPP that is currently in disarray, a fact underlined by the ideological rift between Chen, and the party's presidential candidate, Frank Hsieh. Hsieh is struggling to define his own, more centrist, agenda, and this high-profile dispute is pressing the party's legislative candidates to choose between two important leaders and sapping the party's capacity to support them effectively.

The KMT also has problems at the top. The leader of the KMT, presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou, has twice been cleared by the High Court of corruption for diverting part of a special allowance to his own account while serving as Taipei mayor. Yet his bid may still be under threat; prosecutors have made a final appeal against the not-guilty verdict.  

It looks as though the KMT will achieve the strong victory it is seeking: a New Year's Day poll conducted by the TVBS, a Taiwan television station, indicated that the KMT -- in conjunction with smaller party alliances -- could win 75 seats on Saturday, with just 31 for the DPP.

Yet polls have underestimated DPP support in the past, and the KMT could still achieve a resounding victory on Saturday and lose in March.