EU: Blair's eyes on the prize

Ex-UK Prime Minister Tony Blair is due to address the party conference of French President Nicolas Sarkozy's UMP party on Saturday. 

The fact that the erstwhile leader of the UK's centre-left Labour party is addressing the main French centre-right party has been greeted with derision across Europe.  Yet in return for his efforts, Blair will get full and public support from Sarkozy for his ambition to become the first EU president, the new five-year high-profile job that will be up for grabs in 2009.  Blair's reputation as the most pro-European UK leader in recent times is clearly in his favour, yet this is not exactly a remarkable achievement given that his country is the most Eurosceptic of all.

In fact, his failure to sell the euro to his countrymen during his ten years in office as well as his participation in the Iraq war, which caused the biggest split in the EU in decades, might outweigh his pro-European credentials.  Sarkozy's backing might not necessarily help Blair; the French president has proved very divisive, possibly due to the perception that he steals other people's thunder (such as the breakthrough on the EU Reform Treaty or the release of Bulgarian health workers in Libya). 

The job might be better suited to more neutral personalities, such as Luxembourg's Jean-Claude Juncker, Ireland's Bertie Ahern, Poland's Alexander Kwasniewski or Denmark's Anders Fogh Rasmussen.  However, the desire to give the EU more visibility in world affairs might yet swing the argument in favour of heavyweights from the biggest member states.  This year promises to be dominated by extensive political haggling and horse-trading in the race for the new top post. Blair is unlikely to emerge as the winner.