Are pro-democracy marches in Hong Kong a waste of time?

Hong Kong's pro-democracy camp is unhappy with the timetable provided by Beijing for full democracy in the territory, and is planning a protest march on Sunday. The protest may attract tens of thousands of marchers -- for local opinion polls show huge support among Hong Kong citizens for democracy -- but it will not be enough to squeeze further concessions out of the Chinese government. 

For progress towards democracy occurs at Beijing's pleasure.

China's highest legal body, the 150-strong Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPC), made a key decision on Hong Kong's constitutional future last month, ruling out full democracy there in 2012, but indicated that the city's chief executive could be selected by universal suffrage in 2017.

The provisions are broadly in line with recommendations submitted to Beijing by Chief Executive Donald Tsang. While encouraging a degree of reform in the next five years, Tsang's petition offered no firm timetable or proposals. He prudently left it open for Beijing to decide how quickly change should be introduced.

For members of the pro-democracy camp, it is a case of faute de mieux.  If they do not back Beijing's meagre offerings first time round, they may not be offered them again. They might then be blamed for throwing away a rare opportunity.

Any changes to electoral methods must be approved by two-thirds of the city's legislature, where the democrats have enough seats to exercise a veto. Yet with key legislative council elections in 2008, in which half the 60-seat chamber will be directly elected, the democrats may feel even greater pressure to compromise. Beijing, for its part, will not budge; if democracy takes root in Hong Kong, it could set a precedent elsewhere in China.