Georgia: democratic beacon?

Is Washington's golden boy losing his lustre? 

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, who swept to power almost exactly four years ago in a whirlwind of fireworks, rock concerts and rose petals, has been held up by the West as a model economic reformer and champion of democracy. Yet many of his achievements have not come hand-in-hand with the observance of the rule of law. If Tbilisi wishes to retain Western support, a snap presidential election on Saturday must be seen to be fair and free.

Saakashvili, who was educated at Columbia University law school in the United States and speaks fluent English, French, Ukrainian and Russian, is likely to win a new term in the election, but his reputation has been tainted:

• The United States touted the former Soviet republic as a brave new democracy after Saakashvili made substantial progress in liberalising the economy, building a more efficient state bureaucracy, and reducing systemic corruption.
• But he angered many Georgians and dismayed his allies in November when he used heavy-handed tactics to break up peaceful anti-government demonstrations, and shuttered the biggest opposition television station.

Saakashvili called the election months earlier than planned to assuage the opposition, who accuse him of ruling in an autocratic style and failing to ease poverty and unemployment.

The accusations are not entirely groundless. The emphasis on democracy has overlooked Tiblisi's occasional use of force to obtain desired policy outcomes and deal with secessionist regimes, and neglect of the social dimension of economic reforms. Saakashvili has thus antagonised large segments of Georgian society:

• Opposition groups feel increasingly marginalised by Saakashvili's skilful political manoeuvring, rhetoric and, occasionally, gerrymandering.
• Former bureaucrats were laid off during the reform of the government apparatus and came to oppose the government.
• Former policemen were laid off in large numbers
• Socially vulnerable groups suffered from Saakashvili's market-oriented reforms, which included sharp rises in food and energy prices.

Heavy-handedness and tough reform measures are one thing; electoral malpractice is another. The fairness of the elections will show whether the president is prepared to infringe free speech and the rule of law. Organisations such as Transparency International and the National Democratic Institute already have accused the government of voter intimidation, misuse of funds and including untraceable voters on the rolls. There are also suspicions over the use of government financial backing for Saakashvili's re-election campaign. 

The world will have its eyes and ears in Georgia. Up to 500 observers of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) are expected to monitor the presidential elections, and if they produce any evidence of ballot fraud, it will spark mass protest, stoked -- and possibly bankrolled -- by disgruntled opposition groups. 

Though Saakashvili is on course to win, voters will probably register their unhappiness with the president's rule. Saakashvili's main short-term goal will be to win the presidential poll in the first round. Failure to do so may give the opposition time to agree on a single candidate who will be capable of mobilising the population.