Kenya: photo finish

Kenya is preparing for the most competitive elections since the return to multiparty politics in 1992. Indeed, Thursday's presidential poll is currently too close to call. 

President Mwai Kibaki, the man who was widely considered the front-runner, has seen his early campaign lead evaporate.  From routinely running 15-20 points ahead in the polls, the latest numbers from the Steadman Group -- which accurately predicted Kibaki's 2002 victory -- had Kibaki at 42%, compared to former ally Raila Odinga's 46%. 

Odinga and his party, the Orange Democratic Movement, have gone from minor players in a fractious opposition to frontrunners, benefiting from a number of factors:

Ethnic calculus

He has effectively managed the ethnic dimension of Kenyan politics.  No ethnic group is large enough to give its candidate a majority on its own.  Odinga has the overwhelming support of his mostly Luo homeland in Nyanza province, but he has also successfully reached out to other groups by bringing key politicians into his tent -- including the Kamba leader Charity Ngilu.  Moreover, he has wooed Kenya's Muslims, who are disillusioned with Kibaki over controversial anti-terror legislation that they feel targets their community.  Odinga has also pledged his support for a 'majimbo' (regionalist) constitution -- playing to the interests of marginal ethnic groups though devolution of powers from Nairobi.

Energetic campaigning

Odinga's campaign has been far more energetic than Kibaki's, perhaps due to his relative youth: he turns 63 next month, compared to Kibaki's 76.  Odinga is a gifted orator, whereas Kibaki comes across as sleepy.  Both parties are running slick campaigns, but Odinga has brought in US political consultant Dick Morris, who worked on President Bill Clinton's 1996 re-election campaign. 

Corruption

Kibaki's campaign may be further undermined by the perception that while he has been successful on delivering growth, he has failed to root out corruption.  Moreover, his pre-electoral alliance with former President Daniel arap Moi may have reinforced perceptions he is tied to corruption.  All this plays to Odinga's advantage, particularly with young, poor, urban voters.

This has enabled Odinga to emerge from the ashes of the broad coalition that opposed Kibaki in the 2006 constitutional referendum.  The original Orange Democratic Movement included KANU and other former Kibaki allies, but splintered under the strain of competing presidential ambitions.  Another faction, the ODM-Kenya, is led by Kalonzo Musyoka, but his support has topped out at about 10%.

Nevertheless, Odinga's remarkable surge has not put him over the top.  And whichever candidate comes out ahead will face the prospect of a seriously divided parliament.  Unlike the presidential race, a much larger number of parties are competing in parliamentary polls, and none is likely to emerge with a majority.  The new president faces the prospect of a coalition government, which could stymie the reform process.