Iraq: chasing al-Qaida

Al-Qaida and other Sunni Islamist fighters have been run out of western Anbar province, once the most dangerous area of Iraq. And the commander of US forces in Baghdad, Major General Joseph Fil, recently said that US forces have eliminated al-Qaida's grip on the capital. However, he acknowledged that al-Qaida could still "come back swinging".

Part of the challenge is to prevent fighters from regrouping in other areas of Iraq. This week, US forces are preparing to launch Operation Marne Roundup to take on al-Qaida forces that are reorganising in Babel Province just south of Baghdad. It will target Sunni Islamist fighters in small hamlets and fishing villages along the Euphrates River valley.

The number of attacks across Iraq has fallen by 60% since the troop build-up was completed in mid-June, but US commanders say al-Qaida remains a dangerous enemy and may attempt to launch large-scale, spectacular attacks.

The decline in civilian and US military casualties is more than just a triumph of the US troop 'surge'. It is also a product of influential Shia firebrand Muqtada al-Sadr's ceasefire, the wringing out of heterogeneity within certain Baghdad neighbourhoods through ethnic and sectarian cleansing and Sunni alienation from al-Qaida in Mesopotamia. However, many of these improvements are fragile or temporary, which suggests that a renewed upsurge in violence is possible.