Lee scents victory

Politics, big business and scandal are seemingly inseparable in South Korea.

The country is accustomed to the sight of handcuffed former presidents being led into court to explain their ill-gotten gains. And as the country heads to the polls on Wednesday to elect a president, the media is fixated on tales of endemic corruption, and the influence of the family-owned 'chaebol' conglomerates, rather than dissecting the policies of the candidates. 

The country's new president will not usher in a new dawn of scandal-free politics. President Roh Moo-hyun's likely successor will be Lee Myung-bak of the opposition Grand National Party (GNP), a conservative ex-businessman and former mayor of Seoul, who has a commanding lead in opinion polls. Yet Lee has always been dogged by doubts over his probity.

His campaign has been conducted in the shadow of suspicion that he might be implicated in the alleged crimes of a former business partner. Lee is now benefiting from a second wind, having been recently cleared of involvement in stock price manipulation.

As mayor of Seoul, he was known for his controversial policy initiatives -- especially for the restoration of Cheonggyecheon, a creek flowing through downtown Seoul -- and was frequently accused of corruption.

He has called for South Korea to take a harder line on North Korea and for a greater emphasis on free market solutions.

He is also benefiting from a population ready for change. A Gallup Poll conducted in the country earlier this year indicates that just 25% of the population has confidence in the national liberal government. During the campaign, Lee has tapped into this discontent by pledging to reinvigorate the nation's weak economic performance while putting more won in people's pockets, Gallup writes. Slow growth, unemployment, and rising housing prices have eroded the public's satisfaction with the economy and increased disaffection with a lame duck Roh: 77% of South Koreans told Gallup that the current economic conditions in the country are not good.

The probable runner-up in the presidential election is independent candidate Lee Hoi-chang, a former prime minister and Supreme Court judge nicknamed 'Bamboo', a Korean term for an upright person of principle. He claims to doubt both Lee Myung-bak's conservatism and honesty. But protests from Lee Myung-bak's rivals on the liberal side of the political divide against the prosecutors' decision to clear him of charges will come too late to affect the election.

With the Lees combined polling support ratings close to 60%, a swing to the right is evident. Good support for Lee Hoi-chang in particular is a reminder that South Korea's old-style hard right is not a spent force after all.

There is the potential for upset: there are many floating voters -- at least 20% of a total electorate of 37.7 million -- who may not decide on a candidate until polling day, or might not vote at all. It shows weariness with a political world rife with accusations and counter-accusations of stock rigging and embezzling.

Indeed, the whole election takes place against the backdrop of an independent investigation into corruption allegations at Samsung: one of the firm's former executives has accused the company of bribing politicians to stop probes into its management. The pro-chaebol Lee Myung-bak may have survived the challenge of separate allegations against him, but the political fallout from the Samsung affair is uncertain, and the matter will drag on well into 2008.

Optimists will see the Samsung affair and similar airings of dirty laundry as part of South Korea's democratic maturation. Yet the allegations against the country's biggest chaebol and best-known global brand will surely further erode confidence in the country's governance.