Japan – election looming?

A lower house election is not due in Japan until late 2009 -- and almost nobody is calling for one. Yet realpolitik may force Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda to call one in early 2008.

A political deadlock currently exists between the country's upper and lower houses. The two houses are at odds over a bill to restart a naval mission supporting US-led operations in Afghanistan. The government-controlled lower house has given the green light to resume Japan's refuelling mission in the Indian Ocean, but the bill was rejected by the upper house of parliament, which is controlled by the opposition parties.

The ruling bloc in the more powerful lower house can use its two-thirds majority to override the upper house, but to do that, the current parliamentary session that is due to end on Saturday may have to be extended until mid-January. The government risks formal censure if it does, and the ensuing stalemate would put pressure on Fukuda to call a snap poll for February.

However, while the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and main opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) are preparing for polling day, they will both be happy to wait.

Both parties have everything to lose from a snap election: early polls suggest that 32% of the electorate would vote for the ruling LDP, while the same number would pick the DPJ. The issue of the refuelling mission also splits the country down the middle: 44% of respondents are in favour of it, and exactly the same number against it. An early election would probably cost the ruling bloc its two-thirds majority in the lower house, and paralyse its ability to push through legislation.

The Democratic Party may put a brave face on a snap poll -- and would almost certainly be better prepared than the LDP in the event of a springtime election -- but it could also do without the bother. It managed a good performance in the July election, but has been haemorrhaging public support since its leader Ichiro Ozawa held talks with Fukuda about a possible "grand coalition" to end the stalemate. 

In any case, there is real potential for policy deadlock. The DPJ can be expected to call the LDP's bluff, but the LDP will carry out the threat only if it sees some advantage in holding the lower house election sooner rather than later in 2008.